TL;DR. Your historical data gives you (best-case) an effective sample size of roughly one, invalidating most of your inferences.

Looking for the statistics? We’ll get there, but first a little background.

What’s a Safe Withdrawal Rate and why does it matter?

It’s often easy to overlook it, but we are fortunate to live in a time of unprecedented global prosperity. For the past century or so it has become possible, in some countries even typical, that people do not continue working until the day they die, but that they “retire” from the workforce and sustain themselves via a combination of a employer pensions, social security, and own savings.

This combination…

Robert McMillan @nfrnc

Economist, co-founder of QuantCo

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store